OTTAWA, Oct 30 (Reuters) – The escalating conflict between Canada and India regarding allegations of violence against Sikhs in Canada may lead to an increase in cyber espionage originating from India and could hinder immigration processes. However, analysts and experts do not foresee any immediate repercussions on trade relations.
Concerns regarding the growing divide between the two nations have surfaced following a statement from a senior Canadian official to a parliamentary national security committee on Tuesday, which claimed that Indian Minister of Home Affairs Amit Shah, a close associate of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, orchestrated the alleged schemes.
Indian officials have dismissed these claims, yet this revelation could exacerbate a dispute that began last year when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau referenced credible evidence connecting Indian agents to the June 2023 assassination of Sikh leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia.
In retaliation, Canada expelled six Indian diplomats earlier this month, accusing them of involvement in the incident. Four individuals have been charged with Nijjar’s murder.
The Canadian signals intelligence agency, responsible for monitoring foreign cyber threats, indicated that New Delhi is likely already engaged in cyber activities targeting Canadian networks for espionage purposes. Caroline Xavier, head of the agency known as Communications Security Establishment Canada, stated at a press conference on Wednesday that as tensions between Canada and India potentially escalate, India may seek to demonstrate its cyber capabilities against Canadian interests. The agency has previously identified India as an emerging threat.
On the diplomatic front, Ottawa is not expected to implement further punitive measures until additional information regarding the Nijjar case is revealed, according to Vina Nadjibulla, vice president of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada think tank. She noted that cabinet ministers are scheduled to provide testimony to the national security committee, and the trial for the four accused individuals has yet to commence. “If charges are brought against individuals residing in India at any level, it would initiate an extradition process,” she added.
TRADE RELATIONS
India ranks as Canada’s 10th largest trading partner, and New Delhi has expressed its desire to maintain uninterrupted trade flows. A study conducted by Nadjibulla’s foundation indicated that Prime Minister Trudeau’s remarks in October 2023 had minimal impact on bilateral trade relations.
“Whether the current situation will yield a different outcome remains uncertain, as the scale of disruption is more significant, and I do not believe we have yet reached the lowest point,” she stated during a phone interview.
Canada stands as the leading exporter of pulses, including lentils, to India. In response to inquiries regarding the potential ramifications of the diplomatic conflict, Pulse Canada President Greg Cherewyk emphasized the robustness of the bilateral relationship.
“Amid persistent food price inflation and a strong demand for pulse crops, we are optimistic that considerations of affordability and availability will continue to guide government decisions,” he remarked in a statement.
“We have fortunately not observed any adverse effects of the political tensions on trade,” noted Michael Harvey, executive director of the Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance. “India and Canada possess significant potential in their trading relationship, and CAFTA is hopeful that we can return to constructive trade discussions.”
